BPA: Replacing Energy Created By Lower Snake River Dams Cost Effective

Sunset on the lake-like Snake River below Ice Harbor dam. These warm water, low flow conditions are ideal for fish predators like Walleye and smallmouth bass to feed on outgoing salmon and steelhead smolts. Photo: Daniel Ritz/@Jacks_Experience_Trading

Study commissioned by BPA shows the cost of replacing energy from LSRDs is within existing estimates and could potentially drop power bills for ratepayers.

By Daniel Ritz/IWF Staff

The  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) released two new reports last week resulting from a continued interagency initiative to restore salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia River Basin, while meeting required and expected state & federal clean energy goals. 

The reports included: 1.) A draft assessment of the state of the science and large scale actions needed to make progress toward healthy and harvestable abundances of key fish stocks in the Basin (Read IWF’s Summary of That Report Here); and 2.) An assessment of power production portfolios that could offset the potential loss of electric generation from four federal dams on the lower Snake River, if Congress were to pursue a new long-term strategy for the management of the Columbia River hydropower system. 

The first study was the latest recognition of science generally agreed upon for the better part of 30 years. The second study - on potential power portfolios, which was commissioned by the BPA and conducted by the private consulting firm Energy and Environmental Economics(E3) - is truly innovative as it presents a range of power production scenarios and costs associated with replacing the electrical power from four Federal dams on the Lower Snake River in the event Congress were to authorize such an action.

“Replacing the four lower Snake River dams while meeting clean energy goals and system reliability is possible…”- E3, commissioned by BPA

BPA Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study is intended to inform long-term strategies for providing affordable and carbon free electricity in the region. In two scenarios that assume that emerging energy technologies become commercially available, the study finds that replacing the energy and grid services provided by the dams is possible, and predicts costs of likely scenarios to cost from $11 billion to $19 billion, within the ranges of other similar studies that have been commissioned.

Most of the headlines you read last week focused exclusively, and solely on the cost. With a number of regional politicians aiming to displace proven science with polarizing scare tactics, it is important to remember to put reports like these into context and focus on the well-being of the communities affected by this aged-out river management system.

Of course there is a cost. But what is it compared to what we are already paying for our current  hydropower management system? 

IWF staff did some digging and cost comparison. Here’s the WHOLE story. 

IWF Takeaways

Takeaway #1: The highest cost scenario to replace the power of the dams using current baseline technology only(2b)(other than the one with no additional combustion, which is not financially feasible) estimates an 18% increase in the cost to consumers (range is from 8-18% depending on scenario.) 

What Does This Mean: This increase is only half of the nearly 30% of each BPA power bill that goes towards funding the required fish and game mitigation currently (the mitigation that has cost more than $24 billion over the last 30 years and  in continuous fish population decline.) When BPA fish mitigation requirements in exchange for dam removal are removed from ratepayers bills, consumers could be saving money (as much as 12 percent.) Costs to ratepayers may still increase over time due to clean energy requirements, but reducing BPA’s fish mitigation requirements will make a significant difference on ratepayers energy bills.  

BPA Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study

Takeaway #2: It is important to remember that all costs in this study assume BPA Tier 1 rate payers pick up the entirety of costs of energy replacement for the breached dams. 

What Does This Mean: If there is funding made available through an act of Congress, the cost to consumers would decrease, or potentially stay at the same rates they’re currently paying.  Scenarios where there would be dam breaching without financial injections from Congress are unlikely. 

BPA Lower Snake River Dams Power Replacement Study

Takeaway #3: Dam breach 2024 scenarios are cost equivalent to 2032 scenarios. 

What Does This Mean? While transitioning grain transport away from barging will make dam breach difficult by 2024, BPA rate payers should be reassured to know that the financial lift needed to mitigate for lost energy is achievable on a shorter turnaround with minimal annual cost increases.